I bought two positions like I was supposed to but I ended up closing way too soon. Stochastics were setup and there was a great reversal bar pattern at the beginning of the London Session.
As you can see on the chart it is embarrassing how early I closed them. If I would have stuck to the profit target on the first position and let the second one run, I would have potentially have had about 150 total pips.
That would have been my best London Trade to date. Alas however, I ended up with jack crap.
I have come to realize that part of the problem may be the fact that
Price hit a previous resistance level at the beginning of the London session, accompanied by and overbought situation on the Stochastics.
I actually entered a little late because I missed the true reversal pattern.
As you can see on the chart, I exited both positions way too early and missed out on another 90 pips or so.
Why did I close them out early? Again, it was because I being too conservative. If I had followed the plan that I have been backtesting, it would have been a good trade.
As soon as I saw this setup, I had to jump on it. My backtesting has shown that once this setup occurs, there is a very good chance that price as hit a turning point.
There was a chopstick formation where there were two long wicked candles to the downside. This usually signals a move back up.
Therefore, I jumped in long, but I only took 1 position. The usual London trade rules call for two positions, setting the take profit on one at 20 pips and letting the second one run.
Sorry for the disorganization the past few days, but I moved this blog to another website host and I am still tying up loose ends. Moving over three years of posts, photos and files has proven to be a little more complicated that I thought.
My hope is that this change will lead to a more reliable website and faster loading times. My previous host was slow, went down quite a bit and they jacked up my hosting costs, so it was time to go. Anyway, it might be another couple days before I can get everything tested and back to normal, but I will continue blogging.
How is your trading going? What is on your mind? Feel free to leave a comment below.
The trade was profitable for a little while, but then it started moving against me. I decided to close it out and go to sleep.
I was a little disheartened by the previous losing trades, so I didn’t want the loss to get any bigger. It was probably just as well because price proceeded to jump up later.
I have been doing a lot of backtesting with an automated testing script in Forex Tester 2. At certain points however, I was getting errors and I was not able to continue testing.
This was pretty frustrating and I tried reloading the data and building the ticks again. That didn’t work and I tried restarting the computer but that didn’t work either.
I didn’t want to reinstall the program, but it got to the point where I thought I might. Luckily, I finally figured it out.
Price looked like it would head back down, so I took a short position on this trade. Things were looking good, then there was some news or something that caused the market to jump up.
When I looked on the calendar, there was nothing that should have caused the jump in price. There wasn’t much I could do, I could only take the loss and move on.
As soon as the London Session started, price dipped down and the Stochastics was over sold. This was a good buy signal. I waited for the 15 minute candle to close and I put in two buy orders.
As you can see, price dropped down and took out my stop loss. The result was a -2.5% loss.
Yesterday was a little disappointing because I had a good trade to start with, then I took a marginal one that wiped out all the profits. Well, tonight I decided to learn from that and I just stuck to the first trade, no matter how tempting it was to take another trade.
Here is the chart:
Click above to enlarge
As you can see, I waited for the reversal candle pattern. Since the Stochastic was oversold, that was the trigger to go long after the reversal pattern. I took the money just before it reversed hard.
Crap, I ended up giving it all back. I should have just let the first trade go so that I ended up with a profit. Here is the chart. Pretty much the same thing as the last trade, but in reverse.
Click above to enlarge
As you can see in the chart, the Stochastics was overbought and price action seemed to be meeting some stiff resistance so I decided to go short. This time I only traded one lot because if I was wrong, I knew that I would at least be at breakeven.
I was wrong and lost everything that I gained earlier in the evening. The trade ended in -1.1%.
In hindsight, we were already pretty far into the London session (green line) and was almost into the NY overlap (red line). I should have left well enough alone. In addition, price action was choppy and a breakout trade would have been a better bet instead of a range bounce trade.
This was a case of chasing and was completely unnecessary. It is a good thing that I only traded one lot.
When I was brand new to trading, I bought a course that was the worst course I ever bought. I don’t know where this guy got these strategies, but they flat out didn’t work. In fact, he is not allowed to trade other people’s money or do any education courses ever again.
Since this was before I knew about backtesting, I didn’t know any better and just took him at his word that the strategies he was teaching worked. Luckily, that was the only bad course that I have bought since then.
Was I mad? Not really. Click here to read the article I wrote for EzineArticles.com about what I learned from that experience. I think there are some great lessons to be gained, even though it was an unfortunate situation.
I need to take a little time off to revamp my trading and reassess what I want to do. I thought that this strategy looked interesting and I have been backtesting it and trading it with some really small money.
Tonight I decided start trading it at full size. Here is the trade:
Click above to enlarge
I entered two positions, both with a 23 pip stop loss. One position had a 20 pip take profit and the other initially had no take profit.
The first target was hit and I made 20 pips on that trade. I then moved the stop loss on the second to +5 pips.
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