I haven’t traded one of these in awhile.
Long 1 lot (100 units) GBJPY @ 5667
Stop @ 5438 (-229 pips)
Take Profit @ 6667 (-1,000 pips)
Confidence Level: 5/10
Reason to take trade: Surprise box
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I was apprehensive about this trade because price really seems to be respecting the bottom of the channel on the daily chart. Also, the surprise box is below the 800 SMA. Usually surprise box trades work better when the 800 SMA is in the center of the box. I liked the fact that price was testing the top of the box, that is a low risk entry.
Price action wasn’t very strong to the upside so I closed the trade early at 5679 (+12 pips). I may consider only taking surprise trades after they have tested the box and put the stop below that level.
Surprise Box trade.
Long 1 (50) GBPJPY @ 4671
Stop @ 4468 (-203)
Target @ 5675 (+1,004)
Looks like a good trade, I have a 7/10 confidence level.
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As you can see, it would have been a very profitable trade if I had stayed in. I closed out because the market retraced and I wanted to be sure that I could bag some profit, especially given my terrible record up until this point. I made +108 pips on this trade.
There was really no sign that the market was retracing significantly so I should have stayed in, at least until the next push. In addition, if you look at the bottom of the box, there was a very well defined TriScreen trade which I didn’t see at the time, but would have been very profitable with many stacking opportunities.
Surprise Box trade on the 1 hour chart.
Short 1 (50) GBPJPY @ 4019
Stop @ 4204 (-185)
Take Profit @ 3219 (+800)
Added a position:
Short 1 (50) @3953
Stop @ 4148 (-195)
Take Profit @ 3219 (+734)
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The stop was pretty wide so I entered on a small position. The break was pretty decisive so I added another position. However, the second position had a lower stop loss than the first position. In hindsight, that made no sense because they were essentially the same position and should have had the same stop.
Regardless, I got stopped out on both positions for a -380 pip loss on the total postion. I am OK with this because it was a good signal and I kept the lot sizes small so I didn’t lose too much in $ amount terms.
Short 1 (150) EURAUD @ 9442
Stop @ 9668 (-226)
Surprise box setup.
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As you can see in the chart, it probably wasn’t the best surprise box because price was not as centered around the 800 SMA. I had a bias to the short side because I felt that the 800 SMA might act as resistance. My confidence level going in was about a 6/10 on this one because price movement was a little choppy and price wasn’t centered around the 800 SMA.
Small Surprise box trade:
Short 1 (100) GBPJPY @ 2956
Stop @ 3125 (-169)
Limit @ 1956 (+1,000)
Very small surprise box but I have found that this type of small box can work on this pair so I entered the trade. Price made a strong move back into the box but was completely denied.
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I closed the trade at 2919 for a profit of 37 pips. I closed the trade because I didn’t like the way the price bounced back up. My confidence level entering the trade was 6/10.
Surprise box trade.
Short 1 (150) USDCAD @ 2041
Stop @ 2257 (-216)
Target @ 1790 (+251) – previous support on the 4 hour chart
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I got stopped out for a -216 pip loss. My mistake here was that the breakout candle was too long. If I did decide to enter after that candle, I should have entered on the pullback, then my risk would have been much lower.
This was a pretty long term trade as my trades go, I carried this one for 7 days. Entry was a very large surprise box.
Short 1 (100) AUDUSD @ 6506
Stop @ 6687 (-181)
Limit @ 5496 1 (+1,010)
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I got stopped out for a -181 pip loss. The entry was good on this trade but I should have exited when price failed to break the first support point after the breakdown out of the box.
Another surprise box trade.
Short 1 (150) EURCAD @ 6277
Stop @ 6475 (-198)
Limit @ 5269 (+1,008)
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I got stopped out on this trade for a -198 pip loss. I don’t think this was a bad trade but perhaps I should have exited earlier. There was too much chop after the breakout. I should have settled for breakeven and taken the squeeze box trade that set up instead. But that is all in hindsight.
Short 1 (100) CHFJPY @ 7828
Stop @ 8040 (-212)
Limit @ 6818 (+1,010)
Entered on a surprise box trade. It was a slightly late entry but the first resistance level held, so I stayed in.
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I woke up in the morning and the pair dropped significantly. Given the week I was having, I thought it best to close the trade becaues price was stalling and looked like it would reverse. Closed out at 7602 for +226 pip profit, still about a 1:1 risk/reward ratio. Good trade
Another surprise box trade.
Short 1 (200) @ 3289
Stop @ 3410 (-121)
Limit @ 2287 (+1002)
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Moved my stop to 3284 (+5)
Moved stop to 3260 (+29)
Stopped out. This was a pretty well executed trade, there is only one thing that I can see in retrospect that may help me in the future. The third push out of the breakout was not successful and moved back into the dealing range. That may have been a good signal to get out. Price subsequently spiked up and stopped me out.
I am glad that I moved my stop because price retraced to pretty near my initial stop and had a good chance of going the other way. I’m not too disappointed that the price moved in my direction after I exited because I protected my position.
Yet another surprise box.
Short 1 (300) @ 7932
Stop @ 8005 (-73)
Limit @ 6914 (+1018)
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I got stopped out at -73 pips.
In hindsight, this is a trade that I should have re-entered. It was a perfect surprise box the second time. The first box may not have been the best to enter because it was only ranging below the 800 SMA. It seems that the best surprise boxes range on both sides of the 800 SMA before breaking out. Perhpas I was a little impatient on this trade.
There were quite a few surprise/sqeeze boxes to trade this week.
Long 1 (200) EURBGP @ 9098
Stop @ 8930 (-168)
Limit @ 0092 (+994)
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Stopped out @ 8930 for -168 pips. Looking at the chart, there are a couple things that stand out.
One is the second test of the support level after the breakout. Is that a possible sign that the trade isn’t going to work when it has to test the first bounce? Possibly, I will have to look at previous trades to find out.
Second, there are two obvious dealing ranges after the breakout. The first is a range that seems to be typical of a market that still needs to clear orders before it completely breaks out. The second range, being lower than the first was a good indication that the trade wasn’t going to go my way and I should have exited.
There are times when it pays to be patient, but in this case I should have gotten out. That would have saved me a few pips. I had a feeling that this trade wasn’t working out but I couldn’t put my finger on why, now I know.
Lesson learned.
Another surprise box.
Short 1 (400) AUDUSD @ 8171
Stop @ 8245 (-74)
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Got stopped out at -74 pips. This was just one of those trades that didn’t work out. I am OK with it.
This was a surprise box breakout trade.
Long 1 (150) @ 5055
Stop @ 4911 (-144)
Limit @ 6032 (+977)
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The price actually closed below the box, which is a short signal. However, I didn’t take that trade because it seemed like a fakeout. There was too much support by the price action below that level and if I did take that trade, I didn’t think that the support below would let the price go too far. In other words, the risk / reward wouldn’t have made it worthwhile.
Price popped the top of the box nicely and retraced back to the top of the box and went back up again. I don’t like this price action because usually when it breaks out of the box the price action is smoother. This price action has the feel of an exhaustion. I could be wrong of course but better safe than sorry.
I closed this trade manually because I didn’t like the action and it was a Friday so I didn’t want to hold it into the weekend.
Trade was closed at 5166 for a +111 pip profit.
This was a great example of riding the surprise box trade to it’s full potential (with only one lot). I’m working on how to make this trade more profitable, but I was satisfied with how this one turned out.
Short 1 (400 units) EURCHF @ 5257
Stop @ 5353 (-96)
Limit @ 4280 (+977)
Bounce off of bottom of Surprise box. This pair started to consolidate around the 800 SMA and I drew the customary
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