Long 1 lot (100 units) GBJPY @ 5667
Stop @ 5438 (-229 pips)
Take Profit @ 6667 (-1,000 pips)

Confidence Level: 5/10

Reason to take trade: Surprise box

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I was apprehensive about this trade because price really seems to be respecting the bottom of the channel on the daily chart.  Also, the surprise box is below the 800 SMA.  Usually surprise box trades work better when the 800 SMA is in the center of the box.  I liked the fact that price was testing the top of the box, that is a low risk entry.

Price action wasn’t very strong to the upside so I closed the trade early at 5679 (+12 pips).  I may consider only taking surprise trades after they have tested the box and put the stop below that level.

Long 1 (50) GBPJPY @ 4671
Stop @ 4468 (-203)
Target @ 5675 (+1,004)

Looks like a good trade, I have a 7/10 confidence level.

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As you can see, it would have been a very profitable trade if I had stayed in.  I closed out because the market retraced and I wanted to be sure that I could bag some profit, especially given my terrible record up until this point.  I made +108 pips on this trade.

There was really no sign that the market was retracing significantly so I should have stayed in, at least until the next push.  In addition, if you look at the bottom of the box, there was a very well defined TriScreen trade which I didn’t see at the time, but would have been very profitable with many stacking opportunities.

Short 1 (50) GBPJPY @ 4019
Stop @ 4204 (-185)
Take Profit @ 3219 (+800)

Added a position:

Short 1 (50) @3953
Stop @ 4148 (-195)
Take Profit @ 3219 (+734)

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The stop was pretty wide so I entered on a small position.  The break was pretty decisive so I added another position.  However, the second position had a lower stop loss than the first position.  In hindsight, that made no sense because they were essentially the same position and should have had the same stop.

Regardless, I got stopped out on both positions for a -380 pip loss on the total postion.  I am OK with this because it was a good signal and I kept the lot sizes small so I didn’t lose too much in $ amount terms.

Surprise box setup.

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As you can see in the chart, it probably wasn’t the best surprise box because price was not as centered around the 800 SMA.  I had a bias to the short side because I felt that the 800 SMA might act as resistance.  My confidence level going in was about a 6/10 on this one because price movement was a little choppy and price wasn’t centered around the 800 SMA.

Short 1 (100) GBPJPY @ 2956
Stop @ 3125 (-169)
Limit @ 1956 (+1,000)

Very small surprise box but I have found that this type of small box can work on this pair so I entered the trade. Price made a strong move back into the box but was completely denied.

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I closed the trade at 2919 for a profit of 37 pips.  I closed the trade because I didn’t like the way the price bounced back up.  My confidence level entering the trade was 6/10.

Short 1 (150) USDCAD @ 2041
Stop @ 2257 (-216)
Target @ 1790 (+251) – previous support on the 4 hour chart

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I got stopped out for a -216 pip loss.  My mistake here was that the breakout candle was too long.  If I did decide to enter after that candle, I should have entered on the pullback, then my risk would have been much lower.

Short 1 (100) AUDUSD @ 6506
Stop @ 6687 (-181)
Limit @ 5496 1 (+1,010)

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I got stopped out for a -181 pip loss.  The entry was good on this trade but I should have exited when price failed to break the first support point after the breakdown out of the box.

Short 1 (150) EURCAD @ 6277
Stop @ 6475 (-198)
Limit @ 5269 (+1,008)

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I got stopped out on this trade for a -198 pip loss.  I don’t think this was a bad trade but perhaps I should have exited earlier.  There was too much chop after the breakout.  I should have settled for breakeven and taken the squeeze box trade that set up instead.  But that is all in hindsight.