I bought two positions like I was supposed to but I ended up closing way too soon. Stochastics were setup and there was a great reversal bar pattern at the beginning of the London Session.
As you can see on the chart it is embarrassing how early I closed them. If I would have stuck to the profit target on the first position and let the second one run, I would have potentially have had about 150 total pips.
That would have been my best London Trade to date. Alas however, I ended up with jack crap.
I have come to realize that part of the problem may be the fact that
Price hit a previous resistance level at the beginning of the London session, accompanied by and overbought situation on the Stochastics.
I actually entered a little late because I missed the true reversal pattern.
As you can see on the chart, I exited both positions way too early and missed out on another 90 pips or so.
Why did I close them out early? Again, it was because I being too conservative. If I had followed the plan that I have been backtesting, it would have been a good trade.
As soon as I saw this setup, I had to jump on it. My backtesting has shown that once this setup occurs, there is a very good chance that price as hit a turning point.
There was a chopstick formation where there were two long wicked candles to the downside. This usually signals a move back up.
Therefore, I jumped in long, but I only took 1 position. The usual London trade rules call for two positions, setting the take profit on one at 20 pips and letting the second one run.
Yesterday was a little disappointing because I had a good trade to start with, then I took a marginal one that wiped out all the profits. Well, tonight I decided to learn from that and I just stuck to the first trade, no matter how tempting it was to take another trade.
Here is the chart:
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As you can see, I waited for the reversal candle pattern. Since the Stochastic was oversold, that was the trigger to go long after the reversal pattern. I took the money just before it reversed hard.
I need to take a little time off to revamp my trading and reassess what I want to do. I thought that this strategy looked interesting and I have been backtesting it and trading it with some really small money.
Tonight I decided start trading it at full size. Here is the trade:
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I entered two positions, both with a 23 pip stop loss. One position had a 20 pip take profit and the other initially had no take profit.
The first target was hit and I made 20 pips on that trade. I then moved the stop loss on the second to +5 pips.
This week was pretty wild but I think there are still a few more pips to be had.
Price seemed to be ranging around the Weekly Pivot, so I put in one last trade for the week. Here is the setup on the 30 minute chart.
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As you can see, the Accelerator trade set up 5 times before this trade. The setup happens when price gets 100 pips or more from the Weekly Pivot (WP).
I use a 20 pip buffer from the WP as the target and stack 10 positions 5 pips apart.
I was a little apprehensive about taking this trade because of all previous hits, but the long wicked candles at the top still gave a good indication that price would reject that level. Even though price action looked good, I was still cautious.
Price dropped down and got close to the target. Since it was Friday, I didn’t want to get stuck in a position over the weekend because Sunday night might gap open. So I wanted to close it out as soon as possible. Here is the 5 minute chart.
Wow, this was a quick one! It looked like the market was going to snap back to the target just below the weekly pivot so I put this trade on before I went to sleep. As you can see, price hit the target very quickly.
I like these types of trades. The end result was a +1.9% gain on the account.
This trade was pretty standard. Price hit the R3 of the previous day. Therefore, I targeted the Daily Pivot on the same day. I stacked 10 trades like usual.
Being a little gun shy from the last Accelerator Trade, I ended up exiting this one a little early.
As I mentioned in my last post, I decided that the best thing to do would be to exit the Accelerator Trade at the first sign of trouble. This would hopefully prevent the horrendous loss that I had on that trade.
I made money on this trade though, +1.8% to be exact. Not a whole lot of money, but I guess it is better to make something than lose a lot.
Upon closer inspection of the 5 minute chart, I could see why I exited. Price stalled for several candles before breaking through.
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Overall, this was not a bad trade. Of course, it would have been much better if I was able to get the maximum profit out of the trade, but it was a good comeback trade after I messed up the last one.
Here is a next day R3 hit and the counter trend trade:
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Price hit R3 from the previous day, signaling a trade targeting the daily pivot of that day. Price then dropped sharply, hitting the target without much trouble.
Since price was so close to the target, I had to use a short stack. In this case, there were only 4 positions traded instead of the usual 10.
I got stopped out on my last Bossilator trade for a tiny loss. However the Bossilator was still red, so I decided to look for another entry. During this time however, the markets were really nervous about Greece and I felt that the EUR had a very bearish bias.
I decided to ditch the Bossilator and do the opposite, sell. Price jumped up to the previous support level and I thought that would be a good opportunity to short, in case there was a freefall. I didn’t want to be long in a market with such bearish fundamental bias.
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Again, this was a discount price and allowed me to set my stop loss on the other side of the former support level for a very small loss.
Price initially moved down and things were starting to look good. It had moved enough that I decided to move the stop down to +5 pips so no matter what happened, I could go to sleep and I would almost be guaranteed 5 pips profit.
The markets then proceeded to go nuts. Hogs got slaughtered and stock markets everywhere went to hell in a hand basket.
But guess what? I got my 5 pips. It was only a +0.005% gain on the account but that is better than losing money.
My call on the direction was ultimately correct as you can see on the chart. However, the pain that I would have had to endure would have been substantial and I am glad that I moved my stop down to +5 pips. On to the next trade!
Here is the second part to the previous GBPJPY trade. I originally canceled the trade because it was a little frustrated with my performance for the week up until then. The 30 minute chart:
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I was slightly profitable for the week and I thought it might be a good idea to play it conservative and end the month with a profit. I thought about that for about half a day and decided that wasn’t the right attitude to have as a trader.
This setup is one of the ones that I have done the most backtesting on and have the most faith in. So if that is the case, why shouldn’t I take the trade?
The chart looked pretty good in my opinion, there weren’t any major support or resistance levels that would stand in the way of price getting to the target. So I entered the buy orders again.
I ended up closing the trade early. Price eventually hit the target without too much hassle. Here is the 1 minute chart:
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