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Trending Outside Bar: Forex Trading Strategy Plan (Version 1)

How can you tell if a system that you just learned, will work for you or not? The first step is to create a backtesting plan. In this post, I'll show you my simple plan for an Outside Bar trading strategy. Feel free to follow along and...

Home / Forex Trading Strategies / Trending Outside Bar: Forex Trading Strategy Plan (Version 1)

By Hugh Kimura

Outside Bar Trading Strategy

You have watched a ton of YouTube videos, read what seems like a million blog posts, and learned countless trading strategies.

That's great, but now what? 

This is where many traders get tripped up.

They learn a plethora of different trading systems, then they try each one out for a few days. Of course, they can't seem to get one to work, so they give up and move on to the next one.

Big mistake.

You just bought yourself a ticket on the Trading Silodrome.

SEE ALSO: Learn the RSI Divergence trading strategy that works

That's when you go around in circles for years, jumping from system to system and never really getting anywhere.

Learning to trade a technical trading strategy successfully, is a 7-step process:

  1. Create a trading plan
  2. Backtest it
  3. Work on your trading psychology
  4. Forward Test it in demo
  5. Work on your trading psychology more
  6. Trade in your live account with confidence
  7. Work on your trading psychology even more

Anyone who tells you that you can just grab the PDF in #1 and jump straight to #6 is either just trying to sell a course, or they forgot what it is like to actually go through the entire process.

If you really want to make it in trading, then you need to follow those steps.

But it's easy to write a blog post or make a YouTube video about the steps. There is plenty of advice out there on the internets.

How about actually going through the entire process?

Yes, let's do more of that.

In this blog post, I'll give you the exact parameters of a trading system, then in later blog posts, I'll show you the testing results.

Feel free to follow along at home 🙂

Trending Outside Bar Trading Strategy – Version 1 (Codename: Aardvark)

Alright, first we need to define a few things for this Outside Bar trading strategy. It is based on the Big Shadow strategy that I learned from Walter.

To make a custom plan of your own, you can download this worksheet.

The Tools

In this test I'm going to use the following:

  • Forex Tester
  • The TH Outside Bar indicator for Forex Tester (optional, but speeds up backtesting)
  • The 10 and 20 EMA (optional, but it makes it easier to see the strength of a trend)
  • Candlestick chart

The Strategy Parameters

  • 1% risk on each trade
  • 1R profit target
  • Daily chart only

Definition of an Outside Bar

The generic definition of an Outside Bar is a bar (or candle) where the high and the low of the current candle is both higher and lower than the high and low of the previous candle.

Here's an example:

AUDCAD2

But it could also look like this…

Outside bar on AUDCAD

This is the preferred type of candle, at least for this strategy. In this trading strategy, we are going to look for Outside Bars that have the following characteristics:

  • The candle closes near the top for a long, near the bottom for a short.
  • The two previous candles (marked as 1 and 2 above) have lower highs for a short and higher lows for a long.
  • Candle 1 should have a lower high than candle 2, for a short. Candle 1 should have a higher low than candle 2 for a long.
  • The body of the Outside Bar should engulf the body of the previous bar.

Here's and example of a long Outside Bar:

Long outside bar

SEE ALSO: Forex scalping secrets revealed (full interview)

There is going to be some skill and practice necessary, when it comes to identifying a good Outside Bar, so don't feel bad if you aren't good at identifying them right now. Your goal at this point should just be to get through one round of backtesting on one currency pair, on the daily chart.

How to Determine a Trending Market

In this strategy, we are going to only look for Outside Bars in trending markets. This is where the EMAs help.

They are totally optional, but when there is good separation between the EMAs, that is a good sign that you are in a trending market.

Again, it will take some practice to learn what a strongly trending market looks like, but the EMAs give us a good reference point.

It also helps to learn how to read price action. This course and this course are excellent for that.

Here's what good separation with an Outside Bar, in a trending market, would look like.

Good outside bar example

Entry

Enter on a pending order, when the price of the next candle breaks the high of the Outside Bar (plus 5 pips) for a long, or the low of the Outside Bar (plus 5 pips), for a short. There also needs to be a support zone for a long and and resistance zone for a short. Outside Bars in between zones will not be considered.

Stop Loss

SL goes on the other side of the Outside Bar, plus 5 pips.

Profit Target

Equal to the stop loss, plus 5 pips. Only looking for a 1R target in this version of the strategy.

Exit

I will only exit when the stop or take profit are hit. No closing out early.

Example

Here's the same chart, with all of the levels shown.

Targets set

Pairs to Test This On

I will test as many pairs as I can get data for. Stay tuned to future blog posts for the results of the Aardvark.

If you want to see an Outside Bar chart analysis on the EURUSD weekly chart while you wait, read this.

Conclusion

Remember, backtesting does have limitations. But it is the key first step in determining if a trading system could be viable or not. If you have zero data about a system, you are flying blind.

Also keep in mind that your backtesting results may be very different from mine. That is because people see the markets differently and can interpret the same set of rules in very different ways.

That is why it is so important for you to backtest a strategy for yourself and not listen to anyone on the internet! 

I will post the results from this Outside Bar trading system soon.

To learn all 7 steps in the Forex Trading Strategy Development process, sign up for our FTSD program.

If you have any questions, leave them in the comments below…

 

 

 

Disclaimer: Some links on this page are affiliate links. We do make a commission if you purchase through these links, but it does not cost you anything extra and we only promote products and services that we wholeheartedly believe in. 

 

Related Articles

Trading System Development: Intro To Historical Analysis
How to Get the Most Out of Your Trading System
How to Backtest the Forex Carry Trade Strategy

Category: Forex Trading Strategies Tag: Trading System Development, Trending Outside Bar Strategy

About Hugh Kimura

Hi, I'm Hugh. I'm an independent trader, educator and researcher. I help traders develop their trading psychology and trading strategies. Learn more about me here.

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First posted: October 5, 2017
Last updated: February 21, 2020

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CFTC Rules 4.41 - Hypothetical or Simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, because the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs, in general, are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Testimonials appearing may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.

 

 

 

 

 

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